Life cycle and techno-economic assessment of anion exchange membrane electrolysis: Cradle-to-gate supply chain emissions and scale-dependent cost analysis

Abstract

This study presents an integrated assessment of anion exchange membrane electrolysis that combines experimentally validated lifecycle inventory data, comprehensive cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas accounting, and probabilistic techno-economic analysis under scale-dependent conditions. The results demonstrate that under a realistic Net Zero 2050 grid scenario, the total carbon footprint is estimated at 2.53 kgCO2eq/kgH2, with electricity consumption dominating the environmental impact. However, evaluating the system under an ideal zero‑carbon electricity supply reveals a baseline footprint of 0.44 kgCO2eq/kgH2, demonstrating that upstream material production and component manufacturing impose an irreducible minimum emission threshold. Economically, the levelized cost of hydrogen decreases from 5.05/kgH2 at 50,000 kgH2/day, driven primarily by economies of scale. Notably, the two-parameter interaction analysis reveals that system availability and electrochemical efficiency act as primary co-optimization drivers, exhibiting a pronounced synergistic interaction for global warming potential while delivering additive economic benefits for hydrogen production cost. Furthermore, increasing system scale not only lowers costs but also progressively narrows economic uncertainty. These findings highlight that the sustainability of green hydrogen cannot be accurately evaluated without incorporating upstream supply chain impacts alongside operational metrics. The study provides an evidence-based framework for evaluating emerging electrolysis technologies and informing rigorous carbon certification standards.